Daytona Road Race Preview
Busting the Daytona myths as Bike Week heats up
By Alan Fleming (check out Alan's road racing blog here)

In this edition of MythBuster...wait, I think two guys from San Francisco already have that name...how about Mythbusting? Okay, as I was saying, in this edition of MythBusting, we are going to tackle the myths, folklore and assumptions about the AMA Superbike Series' upcoming round of racing at Daytona International Speedway, March 9 through 14.

Over the winter, a lot of press releases flowed out, heralding track renovations at Daytona, class changes from the AMA and team changes for the various factories and privateer efforts. Rumors have flowed across websites, blogs and parts-counters. Now, it's time to sift through some of this info and see what insights we can get for the upcoming races...

THE TRACK
The first item to examine is the assumption that the changes at the self-proclaimed "Birthplace of Speed" have made the track a safer place to race. Well, there is no argument about whether there have been big changes at the Speedway over the past few months. The track configuration has undergone its first major change since the chicane was added in 1976. This new layout shortens the track by .56 miles to 3.0 miles in length, but more importantly, it cuts out the west bank of the Tri-Oval, reducing the amount of time the bikes are leaned over at full throttle. This, in turn, should reduce tire temperatures and will hopefully make for a safer race.

While many riders feel the new layout may be safer, Mat Mladin had a big crash during the December tire tests, so the jury is still out. The safety issue ultimately depends not on the track, but on whether the tire companies provide super-soft tires to match the shorter race distance or stick with the previous hard "Daytona 200" tires for this year's Superbike sprint race. Reducing race distance and lowering tire temperatures only makes things safer if the tires remain constant. Since all the factory Superbike teams will be running Dunlop tires this year, there is less motivation for risking the soft tires, so the track changes may appear safer. For the moment, this one falls into the "probable" column, but like tire pressure, the truth will only be known once it's tested.

SUPERBIKE
The second myth we'll examine is that Superbike is the premier class in the AMA paddock. This has certainly been the case since the 1970s, but the Pro Racing board at the AMA has been making decisions over the past few years that could be changing that. As the 1000cc sport bikes upon which Superbikes are based have gotten faster and faster, the AMA has talked of switching the premier class to 600cc-based bikes with few modification restrictions. Effectively, they want to create a 600cc Superbike class.

During the 2004 season, this idea took form in the revised Formula Xtreme class, changing this "no holds barred" class from liter bikes to 600s. Despite little participation from manufacturers other than Honda, the FX class has been promoted this year to run in the prestigious 200-mile race at Daytona, demoting the "premier" Superbike class to a 15-lap sprint race. This change was reportedly made to increase safety by keeping the power-crazed Superbikes from chewing up tires during the long race. It may improve safety, but it has clouded the issue about what truly is the premier class on the AMA schedule. While this myth isn't yet shattered, it's a lot less certain than it seemed last year, and it joins the overall safety issue as only "probable."

HISTORY
Another myth we should examine is that this year's changes to the track configuration at Daytona has broken the famous tradition of motorcycle racing at the Speedway. Well, to answer this claim, one has to look no further than a history of the track itself. Nearly every race fan knows that the original races at Daytona took place on a three-mile circuit laid out on the beach and coastal road. This race was first held in 1937 and won by Ed Kretz on an Indian. However, within 10 years, the race was moved to a different section of beach. Just over a decade after that, it was moved to the Speedway. Even if the nostalgia buffs trace the current race tradition back to those glory days of the early 1960s, they are ignoring the fact that the track layout changed six times between 1961 and 2004. The only connection between Daytona wins by greats like Ed Kretz, Kenny Roberts, Scott Russell and Mat Mladin is a name and a rough geographic location.

Rules change and tracks change, but winning the first race of the season will always be a special accomplishment, especially when the name Daytona is involved. Consider this one busted like a cheap tire after 30 laps on the banking.

BATTLE OF THE AGES
How about the idea that age and experience always prevail over youth and enthusiasm at Daytona? The record books for the Daytona 200 show a long list of multi-time champions and old guys winning races. In recent times, riders like Scott Russell, Miguel Duhamel and Mat Mladin have virtually owned the 200. In all three cases, the riders are older than many of their competitors, and all honed their Daytona racecraft over many races at the Speedway. Winning at Daytona, particularly the last-lap, last-turn drafting pass off the east banking, is an acquired skill. Even in the sprint races, an intimate knowledge of the track has often been the key factor behind a win. Knowing how to manage tire wear, managing lean-angle against the 30-degree banking, and knowing how to calculate the pit-stop strategy, aren't things a Daytona newbie can easily learn. This is backed up by recognizing how many Daytona winners have previously won at the Speedway. Lessons learned in past wins make for repeat victories. Based on the history books, I think this myth, like a well-made spoked rim, can be chalked up as "true."

MAN VS. MACHINE
Lots of pre-race predictions indicate that Daytona is all about the rider. As mentioned above, an experienced rider is perhaps the single most important thing to bring to Daytona. But in both the 200 and the sprint races, things like reliability, bike setup and pit-stop work mean that the bike, the crew and the tuners play a large role. This should be clearly seen in this year's 200 because it will be the first time that "built" 600s will be on track for two hours. The smaller engines will run at higher revs than the Superbikes and only slightly slower speeds, so the reliability issue could determine the race. It will also be interesting to see how teams plan their pit strategy, since no one yet knows precisely how the FX bikes will treat their tires or burn gas.

The crew will play a role in the Superbike race as well, but for different reasons. First, the new track configuration means there are now slow, first-gear turns in addition to the high-speed banking. The tuner that gets the bike-setup compromise right will help his rider run fast in both environments. The Daytona track surface is notoriously bumpy, more so now because of the new infield/banking transition, so suspension setup may determine top speed more than horsepower. Finally, the biggest place where tuners can shine is in the Honda garage. After years of running HRC-built bikes, American Honda is now buying kit parts, bringing development in-house. They will have to learn a lot about the bikes in a short time if they are going to challenge for wins from the start of the season. This year, Daytona may be more a race of tuners and teams than riders. I don't think this one will ever be busted, because motorcycle racing will always be so dominated by rider talent. Still, this year will at least cause a few cracks around the edges on this one.

By the way, please keep in mind that digging through history books and using Google like you stole it can be dangerous. Eye strain, carpal-tunnel and mental exhaustion could result. It should be reserved for the professionals and the obsessed. Now, back to the program...

DUCK VS. DAYTONA
Perhaps the most enduring myth is that there is a Ducati Daytona 200 curse. Well, the stats seem to back this one up. Ducati has never won the Daytona 200 and has only won once at Daytona, in 1977, back when Formula One was the premier class and ran the 200-mile race. Despite this grim history of results at Daytona, Ducati has had a lot of success in the practice and qualifying that leads up to the big race. During the '90s, Ducati held nearly half of the pole positions at Daytona, and they've continued setting fast laps during the years leading up to this year's race, including a pole position by Eric Bostrom last year.

It has always been reliability that plagued the Ducatis at Daytona, with accidents or equipment failures ending races early after tantalizing the Ducatisti with early promises of success. With this year's Daytona Superbike race being a 15-lap sprint race, Ducati may finally be able to convert their fast laps into a Superbike race win. Unfortunately, with Superbikes no longer running the 200 and no factory Ducati team racing Formula Xtreme, Ducati may have lost their chance of putting a Daytona 200 trophy in their museum. As far as the 200 is concerned, this one stays "true."

THE PRIVATEER DREAM
Can privateers win the Daytona 200? Superbike racing in the U.S. started as a support class for the then-premier Formula One class and was populated primarily by privateers. But when Superbike was promoted to the premier class in 1987, the factory teams stepped in and have dominated since then. The cost of racing in the Superbike class—including building the bikes, hiring the riders and providing the best crew—generally puts privateer teams at an insurmountable disadvantage, especially at Daytona. The one shining exception to that was John Ashmead's 1989 win with a privateer Honda, but some of the factory teams skipped the race that year. Every year since, it was a factory rider that stood atop the podium.

Once again, this year's changes to both the track configuration and the class structure have radically changed the odds. With only two full-factory riders in the Daytona 200 this season, the odds are much better for those paying their own bills. Second, no one has run a Formula Xtreme bike for 200 miles at Daytona, so who knows how reliability will factor into this year's race. Third, the new track layout and short amount of practice means everyone will have to sort out their bikes quickly. What remains to be determined is whether factory-supported teams qualify as privateer or not... We can argue that once we see the result. In the meantime, although it's still probable that a factory bike will win the 2005 Daytona 200, it is no longer guaranteed.

THE UPSHOT
So with some of the mist of the myths cleared out of the way, what does it all mean? Well, it means there are two "premier" races at Daytona this year: the Superbike sprint race and the Formula Xtreme Daytona 200. The Superbike race has a few variables to consider. First, Ducati and their 999 are finally a contender now that the race is shorter. Honda—generally a favorite to win—is an unknown since they are having to develop the CBR in-house. Suzuki got an earlier start with pre-season testing of their new GSX-R. Given their performance last year, this isn't good news for the other teams. There are a few more factory riders this year than last, but still a thin enough field that the fastest privateers and factory-supported teams will factor into the top 10. Ultimately, Mat Mladin has to be the odds-on favorite again this year, but the list of possible winners is a little longer than in the past few years.

In the 200, Honda has to be the favorite since they are fielding two factory riders and two factory-supported riders. Still, tire wear, fuel usage, suspension setup and engine reliability are all unknowns, so there is still a window for someone to pull off an upset. Last year, the 600cc Supersport bikes were as fast as the Formula Xtreme bikes at Daytona, so another thing to watch is whether the FX tuners have found the performance and setup to justify the "Xtreme" title.

What about the support classes? Well, both the 1000cc bikes in Superstock and the 600cc bikes in Supersport have always provided fantastic racing since they were added to the program. The Kawasaki and Yamaha factory riders dominated the 2004 support races and will certainly to the same this year. Still, there are some talented privateers that keep the factory guys honest and the racing is almost guaranteed to be closer in these classes than the premier classes. Last year they ran lap times very, very close to the "built" bikes, so watch and see just how good production motorcycles have really become!

THE ROSTERS

American Honda
Miguel Duhamel - Superbike, Formula Xtreme
Jake Zemke - Superbike, Formula Xtreme

Erion Honda
Kurtis Roberts – Superbike, Formula Xtreme (Daytona only)
Alex Gobert - Formula Xtreme

Yoshimura Suzuki
Mat Mladin - Superbike
Aaron Yates - Superbike, Superstock
Ben Spies - Superbike, Supersport

Parts Unlimited Ducati Austin
Neil Hodgson - Superbike
Eric Bostrom - Superbike

Jordon Suzuki
Jason Pridmore - Superbike, Superstock
Steve Rapp - Superstock
Montez Stewart - Superstock

M4 Emgo Suzuki
Vincent Haskovic - Superstock, Formula Xtreme
Geoff May - Superstock, Supersport

Black Suzuki
Steve Crevier - Superbike
Francis Martin - Superbike

Hooters Suzuki
Eric Wood - Superbike, Superstock
Jimmy Moore - Superbike, Superstock

KWS Suzuki
Lee Acree - Superbike, Superstock
Blake Young - Superstock, Supersport

Attack Kawasaki
Josh Hayes – Superbike, Formula Xtreme (Daytona only)
Ben Attard - Superstock, Formula Xtreme

Yamaha Canada
Pascal Picotte - Superbike

Team Kawasaki
Tommy Hayden - Superstock, Supersport
Roger Lee Hayden - Superstock, Supersport

Team Yamaha
Jamie Hacking - Superstock, Supersport
Damon Buckmaster - Superstock, Supersport
Aaron Gobert - Superstock, Supersport
Jason Disalvo - Superstock, Supersport

Kneedraggers Yamaha
Robert Jensen - Supersport, Formula Xtreme

Team EMGO Taiwan
Opie Caylor - Formula Xtreme

Shawn Higbee Buell
Shawn Higbee - Formula Xtreme

KSW Racing
Anthony Fania - Superbike, Formula Xtreme
Joseph Ford - Supersport

Hotbodies Racing Honda
Larry Pegram - Superbike
Jeremy Toye - Superbike

Mat Mladin Motorsports Suzuki
Marty Craggill - Superbike

Team Hotbodies Racing
John Dugan -
Taylor Knapp -
Keith Marshall -
William Meyers -
Nicky Moore -
Giovanni Rojas -
Heath Small -
Cory West -

Matsushima Performance Racing Suzuki
Danny Eslik - Supersport, Formula Xtreme
Jeremiah Johnson - Supersport, Formula Xtreme